Managing Complexity in Times of Crisis - Book Review

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The book "Managing Complexity (and chaos) in Times of Crisis: A field guide for decision makers inspired by the Cynefin framework" was written by the Cynefin company (David Snowden), based on the Cynefin framework, in collaboration with the European Commission.

Coping stages:

1. Assessment

2. Adaptation

3. In-between

4. Repurposing (exaptation)

5. Transcendence

The book was written in the shadow of and inspired by COVID-19, yet it is suitable for various types of crises, national or local. There is much to learn from the ideas presented, and as this summary includes only key points, I recommend reading the entire document >>.

This knowledge is necessary and, unfortunately, none of us is immune to crises.

Assessment

Crisis Level: Chaos

Risks: No preparedness for the future, and continuity plans are lacking

Typical Starting Point: Surprise; shock

Guiding Principles of Action:

• Reflection - enables accurate assessment of the situation

• Severe constraints - allows time to think and organize

Key Steps: 

1. Establishing a series of constraints that will constitute clear boundaries for conduct, allow time to be gained, and thereby serve as a key to creative thinking.

2. Beginning detailed narrative journaling that will serve as a basis for learning.

3. Questioning different groups within the organization, in cognitive, cultural, and experiential aspects, to assess the situation independently for each group.

Notes:

• If there are organizational emergency procedures relevant to the situation, it's advisable to ensure they are being implemented.

• Our responses are too often based on cognitive biases and reference to only part of the data accordingly. Caution!

• In the initial assessment stage, it is critical to identify, prioritize, and focus on activities required in the immediate term.

• There are different categories/aspects of constraints worth considering (each described with its characteristics in the context of crisis):

  • Governance: Laws, rules, and codes of conduct

  • Internal/External: Constraints relating to within the organization, and those relating to its environment (markets, customers, etc.)

  • Connecting/Containing: Constraints related to work relationships between people and between units within the organization, as well as work groups or units that require formalization.

  • Rigid/Flexible/With-holes: Different levels of constraints, between those that cannot be deviated from (such as a timeline for completing activities), flexible ones (for example, regarding conduct after work hours), or those that have "holes" - defined and understood exceptions.

  • Dark: Constraints where it's not entirely clear what causes them or what their impact is (by analogy to a black hole).

• Narrative documentation may seem challenging for management and learning in comparison to data, but it is crucial for understanding the situation successfully and subsequently for learning. It's recommended to start as early as possible, to allow not only words but also diagrams. It's advisable to focus on connections between different things we see and experience.

Adaptation

Crisis Level: Chaos

Risks: Weak signals are not identified or given attention.

Typical Starting Point: Confusion

Guiding Principles of Action:

• Empowerment - central orchestration and coordination on one hand, and decentralization of authority and decisions on the other, enabling control while optimizing diverse solutions.

• Transparency - communication enables engagement.

Key Steps:

1. Managing constraints - monitoring and management to identify behavioral patterns.

2. Collecting and communicating rich and detailed information while presenting maximum transparency, as much as possible.

3. Forming special teams for the situation, with the understanding that not everyone can be a partners in everything, and existing structures are insufficient for optimal management of the crisis.

4. Promoting decentralized networks that will enable sensing and information collection, including both weak signals from the field and rapid feedback loops.

Notes:

• Worth monitoring: people's perceptions and tendencies, identities, role-playing, approaches, weak signals, and cohesion. Worth managing: Constraints; connections; roles; routines; catalysts; details; diversity; pace.

• It's recommended to decentralize activities and decisions while jointly orchestrating and directing them according to the information described in this document.

• It's advisable to leverage the human sensing networks, both formal and informal, that already exist within the organization, for the benefit of understanding what's happening within the organization.

• Dedicated teams worth considering establishing: Probing (searching for courses of action); red team (for identifying risks and implications); documentation; data analysis; recovery and calming.

• Whether for synergistic activity, communicating information, or collecting feedback and learning from the field, there is a limitation regarding the scope of people it's possible to work with effectively. It's advisable to establish organizational units, dedicated teams, and additional groups on a scale that enables optimal decentralized activity, communication, and learning.

In-Between

Crisis Level: Shift in course of action

Risks: Commitment to a course of action too early when the picture and optimal direction are not yet clear

Typical Starting Point: Reactivity (not initiative)

Guiding Principles of Action:

• Focus on creating a shared sense of understanding across all information inputs that may appear contradictory.

Key Steps: 

1. Landscape - Collecting and listening to stories and experiences of organizational members to assemble an integrated and comprehensive picture of how it operates.

2. Identifying opportunities - beginning to examine challenges as opportunities for the future.

Notes:

• An effective landscape will be based on a complex map that provides an in-depth understanding of the situation (not a summary report). This will be based on the data, but primarily on the detailed qualitative information collected in documentation processes. It's advisable to present the map visually.

• A landscape will address the existing situation, challenges, and ideas for action, as well as initiate pilots that can demonstrate the benefits of implementing these ideas.

• Be cautious about relying on feedback and feedback loops that emphasize position-taking, rather than situation-adapted thinking.

• Leadership at this stage is expressed through the empowerment of employees, on the one hand, and the strengthening of their engagement, on the other.

• In searching for opportunities for change, it's advisable to separate the five components:

  • Confused/Confusion: Challenges that require attention. Example - equipment is lacking.

  • Clear: Obvious solution directions. Example: When equipment is lacking, buy more.

  • Chaotic: Matters that require immediate action, but it's unclear what the outcome will be. Example - when specific equipment is lacking, it's advisable to use any solution at hand.

  • Complicated: Solution directions that require deep thinking and the incorporation of experts. Example - when specific equipment is in short supply, it's advisable to redesign the operating method to increase the output of existing equipment.

  • Complex: Areas or decisions where there is more than one alternative solution. During a crisis, one can consider using a combination of them (both solutions, instead of either-or). Example - when specific equipment is in short supply, it's advisable to print such items manually with a 3D printer, and to reduce the need.

Repurposing (Exaptation)

Crisis Level: Emergency stability

Risks: 

1. Centralized decisions

2. Overly rigid structures

3. Processes

Typical Starting Point: Entrenchment; rigidity

Guiding Principles of Action:

• Openness to revolutionary ideas for improving processes and tools

• Openness to exploration and experimentation, even in parallel with dealing with major key issues

Key Steps: 

1. Redefinition (even revolutionary) of the allocation of available resources in the organization.

2. Redefinition of ways of action to prevent the recurrence of the crisis or its consequences.

3. Conducting revolutionary innovation processes and considering ideas that in calm times would be regarded as unreasonable.

4. Challenging existing work interfaces to improve decision-making processes.

Notes:

• An efficient way to manage a crisis is through the reallocation of available resources within the organization, whether equipment, time, or personnel. Resource management will enable stabilizing the situation as much as possible and, to the extent possible, limit the consequences resulting from it.

• A crisis is an excellent opportunity for innovation. Sometimes, even when not in a crisis, entering a chaotic state where boundaries are loosened allows for exploring directions that, on the surface, are perceived as unreasonable.

• It's advisable to use templates and organized methods to collect information from the field and to inform decision-makers.

• Based on what is learned through sensing networks, new solutions can be examined by creating temporary scaffolding that facilitates testing the fit of proposed solution directions.

Transcendence, Rising to the Next Level

Crisis Level: Stability

Risks: 

1. Understanding the situation, as it truly is, is too late or it is done

2. biased understanding.

Typical Starting Point: Confidence

Guiding Principles of Action:

• Systematic learning (lessons learned)

Key Steps: 

1. Re-stabilization of role holders and management methods according to the changes that were decided upon,

2. Conducting lessons-learned processes across the organization to learn from what occurred. It's important to prioritize formal documentation and learning processes while the memory of events is still fresh.

Notes:

• A steady pace is more important than speed to create stability and persistence.

• Learning routines are critical; we learn more from crises and failures than from successes.

• It's advisable to invest everything we know about lessons learned to succeed in the learning process, strengthening engagement, fostering a culture where blame is not sought and failures are not directed at individuals, and positioning failures as a methodology that enhances the organization's survival, among other benefits.

Summary

The approach suggested for managing complexity in times of emergency is an operational approach. It is part of the Cynefin company's sense-making approach, which creates meaning that enables people, groups, organizations, and societies to develop a shared understanding that guides action in complex or ambiguous situations.

Knowledge management emphases are highly prominent in this approach throughout:

• Narration- narrative documentation, as a basis for knowledge creation and basing understanding; focused reliance on narrative information and not on data only.

• Collaboration - learning from the field; learning from feedback loops; thinking and learning in teams.

• Communication networks - as a means for communication, engagement, and multi-directional learning.

• Context- The importance of context

• People - the cruciality of trust cultivation and people engagement.

As mentioned, there is much to learn, and we must acquire this knowledge.

This is not a fictional field; it is reality.

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Want to know more about lesson learned?

Here are some articles you might find interesting:

• Learning to Learn from Experience- Book Review

• From theory to practice: practical aspects of lesson learning

• Distilling Insights: Rules for Extracting Meaningful Knowledge from Experience